CariCRIS reaffirms “adequate creditworthiness” ratings for The Government of Saint Lucia

CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency)

CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency)

Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the ratings of CariBBB- (Foreign Currency and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale for the several rated debt issues of the Government of Saint Lucia (GOSL). These ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of these debt obligations, adjudged in relation to other debt obligations in the Caribbean, is adequate.

CariCRIS has also maintained a stable outlook. The stable outlook is based on the stabilization in fiscal performance and in debt to GDP following the initial COVID-19 shock in 2020. Supporting the debt to GDP containment within the current rating category’s limits is the expected GDP growth of around 12% in 2022, a continued inflexion away from 2019’s and 2020’s contractions. Returning tourism activities are expected to support balance of payments health. However, downside risks to the outlook are significant and include inflation and economic slowdown in source markets, slowing the path to full recovery. Further virus impacts and potential hurricane strikes remain key risks as well.

The ratings are driven by the following strengths: (1) monetary and exchange rate stability, underpinned by membership in a quasi-currency board arrangement, (2) sound financial sector despite COVID-19 challenges, and (3) economic activity is wide although dependent on COVID-ravaged tourism; moderate to strong GDP strengthening is expected in coming years. These rating strengths are tempered by the following factors: (1) COVID-19 has worsened GOSL’s fiscal position and significantly increased indebtedness, and (2) debt to GDP is moderately above target of 60% requiring a twined strategy of fiscal consolidation and GDP growth to achieve in the medium-term.

Rating Sensitivity Factors

Factors that could lead to an improvement in the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Substantial changes in the debt levels leading to a debt to GDP ratio below 65%
• Achievement of a balanced budget over the medium term
• Sustained GDP growth of the order of 3% per annum or more (above pre-COVID19 level)

Factors that could lead to a lowering of the Ratings and/ or Outlook include:

• Significant changes in the fiscal position leading to a fiscal deficit larger than 15% of GDP
• Substantial changes in the debt levels leading to sustained debt to GDP in excess of 90% alongside a decline in debt servicing to below 2 times

CariCRIS Rating Release dated October 5, 2022

 

St Vincent and the Grenadines to get oil under Venezuela's PetroCaribe agreement

(CMC) – St Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves says approximately 23,000 barrels of oil will arrive in the country by the end of October under Venezuela's PetroCaribe agreement.

Gonsalves told a news conference that the logistics regarding the importation of the oil are still being worked out with the St Vincent Electricity Services  regarding storage capacity.

“Assuming everything goes to plan…sometime before the end of this month, we should be seeing the first shipment of diesel back with the resumption of the PetroCaribe agreement,” Gonsalves told reporters.

In April, Prime Minister Gonsalves said Caracas has agreed to cancel St Vincent and the Grenadines' debt under PetroCaribe, its oil initiative with Latin American and Caribbean countries. He said as a result, this could result in the national debt declining by nine per cent.

He said Kingstown and Caracas are tallying the precise size of the debt and that “it may be up to US$70 million, meaning EC$189 million”.

Gonsalves said Venezuela would half the debt of the other member countries of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean that are members of PetroCaribe, which will now be reset to offer fuel at 35 per cent discount to participating countries.

Gonsalves said there would also be “a revival of PetroCaribe, which has been brought to a screeching halt effectively by certain sanctions.

“And that revival will see a discount with the participating countries in PetroCaribe of three per cent of the price of fuel. And that is going to mean relief for the persons who consume electricity in St Vincent and the Grenadines in a context in which the price of fuel is rising sharply since COVID and since the military activities in Ukraine.”

Gonsalves, who held talks with President Nicolas Maduro said Venezuela had also pledged homes for people affected by last year's volcanic eruption as well as fertiliser for farmers.

He told reporters that at a recent meeting with the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, certain commitments and arrangements were made and are still being finalised.

“So we are making progress on all of the items dealing with the housing…it is still in the pipeline but I have had to discuss alternative with another country, a possible solution to some of the immediate pressing housing needs arising out of the volcanic eruption,” Gonsalves said.

Government said 150 houses were to be contributed under arrangement through the government of Venezuela but the company involved had reduced the extent of its production.

Regarding the fertilizer and the asphalt, Gonsalves said it is a question of shipping arrangements and specialised shipping has to be organised to bring in the asphalt.

Article Published October 6, 2022 on Jamaica-gleaner.com

 

Caribbean Investment Forum launched with focus on building resilience, boosting investment in region

(Caribbean Export Press Release) Hundreds of businesses and investors from across the world are being invited to help build a “SMARTer, GREENer Caribbean” via the inaugural Caribbean Investment Forum (CIF) which will be held in Trinidad and Tobago from 8-11 November 2022.

At the virtual launch for CIF 2022 (Tuesday), over 400 participants heard details about the dynamic agenda for the business-focused event which will bring together key decision-makers, foreign-direct investors, government agencies, and entrepreneurs, to engage and connect for the benefit of the region.

The Forum will particularly highlight four important sectors for growth; AgTech, Renewable Energy, Transportation and Logistics, and Digital Business. Its main objectives include building regional resilience, establishing long-term jobs, and championing sustainable development.

Speaking at the launch, Caribbean Export’s Executive Director, Deodat Maharaj, said the Forum was timely and essential because “business and investment have an absolutely critical role to play in driving transformation” in the Caribbean.

He added: “The last two years have demonstrated to us more than ever that building resilience must be the top priority of our region. The COVID-19 pandemic placed enormous stress on our economies and societies…it is crystal clear that we need to have a forensic focus on sectors that can drive and advance this transformation.”

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the European Union, Trinidad and Tobago, Peter Cavendish, emphasised the Caribbean’s attractiveness to investors as a peaceful region with well-established democracies and highly talented populations.

Mr Cavendish added: “The Caribbean is composed of vibrant nations which are active in all of the major economic sectors…and the Caribbean nations’ policies are very naturally closely aligned with the EU’s policies in areas such as the Green deal, digitalisation, economic growth and resilience, and in defending common democratic values.

“The Caribbean also lies within the vast markets of North and South America and consider also their long associations with Europe, consider the linking of the Caribbean and the Atlantic with the Pacific Ocean via the Panama Canal, through which a huge percentage of world trade passes.”

In her remarks at the launch, Trinidad and Tobago’s Minister of Trade and Industry, Paula Gopee-Scoon, welcomed the staging of CIF 2022.

“This Forum is truly a regional event,” Ms Gopee-Scoon stated. “It will have at its core the private sector and entrepreneurs whose ideas and expertise at capital will ultimately result in tangible, sustainable projects across the region.”

She further added: “The Caribbean Investment Forum is our window to the world and we look forward to welcoming investors and business executives who wish to strengthen and diversify their products…

“This Forum creates a very unique opportunity for investors to bring together capital with ideas and shovel-ready projects that will undoubtedly redound to the benefit of all of us. The Forum promises to be rich in its daily offerings given the stellar list of presenters and participants. The Caribbean is open for business, our teams are ready, and we look forward to welcoming all of you.”

CIF 2022 will be held at the Hyatt Regency in Trinidad and Tobago. It will feature a range of high-level presentations, panel discussions, roundtables, site visits, and networking opportunities under the theme ‘Building A SMARTer, GREENer, Caribbean’.

The Forum’s speakers will include Secretary-General of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, H.E. Wamkele Mene, Founding Managing Partner of Celesta Capital, Nicholas Brathwaite, Executive Director of Invest SVG, Annette Mark, and the President and Group Chief Executive Officer of Massy Holdings, Gervase Warner.

Billed as the “largest gathering of businesses since COVID-19’ in the region, CIF 2022 is being hosted by the Caribbean Export Development Agency in collaboration with the Government of Trinidad and Tobago, CARICOM, the Caribbean Development Bank, the Caribbean Association of Investment Promotion Agencies and with the support of the European Union.

Visit the CIF 2022 website for more information and tickets – www.caribbeaninvestmentforum.com.

Article Published October 5, 2022 on today.caricom.org

 

Plans for the launch of Antigua Airways on track

The government has confirmed that plans are on track for the launch of Antigua Airways by the first week of November at the very latest.

The airline was first announced in July by Prime Minister Gaston Browne who said an October start was the goal.

The new airline, which will operate flights to Nigeria, Ghana and Canada, will be based in Antigua and Barbuda.

Other flights to countries in West Africa will be added as the airline grows. The government of Antigua and Barbuda is a part owner in the company and will enjoy 20 percent of the profits generated.

The majority shareholders – a Nigerian investment group – will receive 80 percent of Antigua Airways’ profits. Ambassador Lionel Hurst recently confirmed that plans ahead of the official launch of the airline are being finalised and added that Antigua Airways will begin offering service from the V. C. Bird International Airport very shortly. “I can offer you the assurance that we’re going to see Antigua Airways touchdown at the V. C. Bird International Airport sometime within the next five weeks.

“They are working out all kinds of logistics – not only baggage handling, fuel, permission to fly into Antiguan airspace and so on, they’re working all that out, but you know when they leave Antigua, the plan is to fly on to Toronto before going back to the African continent, and so they must work that in as well,” he explained. Hurst also confirmed that the Cabinet received a positive update on the progress of plans leading up to the launch of Antigua Airways as recently as last Wednesday. “It’s going to be really nice, I can assure you.

From what has been announced in Cabinet yesterday, it’s going to be a really nice event when that airline leaves the African continent, the homeland of the largest number of descendants of Antiguans and Barbudans. It will be something to applaud.” Antigua Airways plans to operate a Boeing 767- 300ER in a 16 business and 251 economy configuration.

The aircraft, which have been secured under a wet lease arrangement, will offer amenities including a modernised interior with touchscreen in-flight entertainment and charging ports.

To entice travellers to use the service, a members loyalty programme will be offered, although the details of this enhancement has not yet been revealed. Antigua Airways is also establishing a “Visa on Arrival Programme” with the African nations it will serve, which will allow travellers to bypass the process of securing a VISA ahead of their trip through third parties.

The launch of Antigua Airways is also expected to pump much needed business into LIAT, as the hope is to establish timely connections for its passengers to other Caribbean islands via the V. C. Bird International Airport homebase.

The launch of the new airline has not been greeted warmly by all, however, and critics are predicting that the airline will be fraught with issues, and perhaps, even failure.

The pronouncements of these harbingers of doom have not shaken the resolve of Prime Minister Gaston Browne and his administration, who continue to express confidence in the venture’s potential for success.

In Parliament on Thursday, the prime minister said that unlike other ventures which have attempted to offer service to West Africa that failed, the plan for Antigua Airways involves sound research, a carefully thought-out plan for the growth of the business and a solid network of local and international resources.

He also made it clear that Antigua and Barbuda has nothing to lose as the government has not invested financially in the airline. “What we did do is to list it as a CIP (Citizen by Investment Programme) project and one in which we have allocated up to ten CIP files, and if and when they are subscribed, then we will get, I believe, about 20 percent of the shares. “My understanding is that the service will start as a charter service. They are also trying to have a sustaining relationship with LIAT 2020 when we would have operationalised LIAT 2020, and we have been told so far that the arrangements to lease the plane and to start operating are on target,” Browne told the Parliament.

Last month, Minister of Tourism, Charles Fernandez, said that Antigua Airways is expected to offer three flights per week out of Antigua and Barbuda at its inception.

Article Published October 5, 2022 on antiguanewsroom.com

 

MARKET PRICES AS AT OCTOBER 5, 2022