Bonds Resume Selloff as Hawkish Fed Talk Sinks In: Markets Wrap

Sep 25, 2023

Bloomberg) -- Government bonds and stocks fell as traders speculated central banks will keep interest rates elevated to quell inflation. The dollar hit its highest level since March as investors sought safety.

Contracts for the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 pointed to extended losses as traders returned to their desks following the worst weekly selloff on Wall Street since March. The US Treasury 10-year yield climbed seven basis points to a fresh 2007 high of 4.5089%. Mining shares dragged down the Stoxx Europe 600 as China’s property problems weighed on the outlook for natural resources.

After the salvo of central bank decisions last week, traders are increasingly concerned that rising oil prices risk fanning inflation, which will make it difficult for policymakers to reduce rates anytime soon. Hedge funds boosted exposure to oil on bets tightening supplies will stoke demand. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index rose to the highest since March.

“All central banks need to stick to this higher-for-longer rhetoric as inflation is nowhere close to their mandate,” said Pooja Kumra, senior European rates strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Two Fed officials last week said at least one more rate hike is possible and that borrowing costs may need to stay higher for longer for the central bank to ease inflation back to its 2% target. While Boston Fed President Susan Collins said further tightening “is certainly not off the table,” Governor Michelle Bowman signaled that more than one increase will probably be required.

Bond Market Is Starting to Believe ECB Higher-for-Longer Pledge

Surging oil prices and a massive fiscal deficit are spurring losses in government debt, sending Treasury yields across the maturity curve to the highest levels in more than a decade. The Treasury 10-year yield may rise to 4.75% before softer risk sentiment and tighter financial conditions push it lower into year-end, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.

Meanwhile, fresh signs of concern for China’s property developers were highlighted by China Evergrande Group’s decision to cancel a creditor meeting, adding to fears about its debt pile. That’s compounding concern that global growth will stall as the economic engine of China sputters.

In premarket trading, Warner Bros Discovery Inc. climbed about 4%, leading film and TV producers higher, after striking Hollywood screenwriters reached a tentative new labor agreement. By contrast, Foot Locker Inc. and Nike Inc. were poised for a lower open as Jefferies analysts downgraded the stocks over looming consumer headwinds.

Key events this week:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari in Q&A, Monday
  • ECB’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks on monetary policy, Monday
  • US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
  • ECB’s Philip Lane speaks on monetary policy, Tuesday
  • China industrial profits, Wednesday
  • US durable goods, Wednesday
  • Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
  • US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell town hall meeting with educators while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee make speeches, Thursday
  • Eurozone CPI, Friday
  • Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, Tokyo CPI, Friday
  • US consumer spending, wholesale inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
  • New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:


  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% as of 8:29 a.m. New York time
  • Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9%
  • The MSCI World index fell 0.3%


  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
  • The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0628
  • The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2222
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 148.72 per dollar


  • Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $26,086.92
  • Ether fell 1.3% to $1,570.7


  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.50%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.80%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.31%


  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $89.93 a barrel
  • Gold futures were little changed
Article Published September 25, 2023 on